Srinagar, Sep 03 (KNO): The main Shopian seat in south Kashmir is set for a triangular contest in the upcoming assembly elections between the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and an independent candidate, Shabir Ahmad Kullay, who was previously with NC.
According to the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO), the division within the National Conference could benefit the PDP, similar to what happened in the 2014 elections.
The three main candidates vying for the seat are Sheikh Rafi of NC, Yawar Ahmad Banday of PDP and Shabir Ahmad Kullay, who is contesting as an independent after leaving NC.
In the 2014 elections, Shabir Kullay, as an independent candidate, secured around 12,000 votes, while the NC candidate Rafi Ahmad garnered approximately 5,000 votes. The division of votes between Rafi and Kullay, who together received around 17,000 votes, allowed PDP's Advocate Mohammad Yousuf to win with about 14,000 votes.
Analysts say a similar split in votes could again benefit the PDP candidate.
Shabir Kullay, who has served as the Bar Association President in District Court Shopian, has a strong ground presence, especially in the Keller hamlet. The support of two District Development Council (DDC) members, Safia Riyaz and Sheikh Abdul Hamid, has further boosted his chances of emerging victorious.
However, the resignation of DDC member Raja Waheed from the PDP to join the AIP and contest the elections may impact the PDP's vote share, particularly in the Keegam area, according to analysts.
Yawar Ahmad Banday, the PDP's candidate, comes from a political family. His grandfather was the first MLA of the Shopian Constituency in 1972, and his father, Mohammed Shafi Banday, was long associated with the Congress.
Despite these strong political ties, the frequent changes in PDP candidates over the last three terms might pose a challenge in maintaining consistent voter support, analysts say.
For the NC, Sheikh Rafi, who won the assembly elections in 1996 but has not succeeded since, will be looking to reclaim the seat that was once considered a stronghold of the National Conference. His father, Sheikh Mansoor, had a long history of victories in Shopian, winning elections in 1977, 1983, and 1987.
The support of former MLC and senior political leader Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, who recently quit the Apni Party, is seen as crucial in this election. His backing could be decisive for any of the three candidates.
Analysts believe that with a history of switching affiliations and a good local following, Manhas's support might influence the outcome of this closely contested race—(KNO)